Looking for a stock-picking service that actually beats the market? Let me tell you about Alpha Picks from Seeking Alpha.
Most investment newsletters promise outperformance but never show you the real numbers. Alpha Picks is different – and after tracking their every recommendation for almost three years, the results might surprise you.
Here’s what I discovered when I dug into the actual performance data, and why this changes everything you thought you knew about momentum investing.
For more financial news and analysis platforms, see our guide to the best here.
The 3.15x Outperformance: Too Good to Be True?
Here’s the headline number: Alpha Picks’ average stock recommendation has returned 69.35% since launch, compared to the S&P 500’s 21.99%. That’s 3.15x better performance.
But here’s what most people miss – and what makes this actually believable.
The strategy isn’t about being right all the time. Only 73% of Alpha Picks’ recommendations are profitable (compared to 99% for the S&P 500). Instead, it’s about finding the few stocks that deliver massive returns.
The proof is in the distribution:
• Twelve stocks have gained more than 100%
• Eight have gained more than 200%
• Six have gained more than 300%
• Three have gained more than 600%
• One stock (APP) delivered a 1,027% return
This is exactly how momentum investing is supposed to work – a handful of big winners more than compensate for the smaller losses.
The Algorithm Behind the Picks: Why It Actually Works
Here’s what makes Alpha Picks different: It’s not based on gut feelings or traditional fundamental analysis. It’s built on Seeking Alpha’s Quant Ratings system, which has averaged 26% annual returns since 2010 – outperforming the S&P 500 by more than 5x.
The selection criteria are surprisingly strict:
• Must have a “Strong Buy” quant rating for at least 75 consecutive days
• U.S. common stocks only (no ADRs or REITs)
• Market cap greater than $500M
• Stock price above $10
• Can’t have been recommended in the past year
But here’s the key insight: The algorithm doesn’t just pick stocks – it tells them when to sell. Positions are closed when momentum dies, not when they hit arbitrary price targets.
The Holding Period Reality Check
Here’s something the marketing doesn’t emphasize: The average holding period is shorter than advertised.
Alpha Picks claims an “expected holding period” of two years, but they’ve already closed 37 out of 56 positions that were held for more than one year. That’s 66% of their longer-term positions.
What this means for you: This isn’t a “buy and forget” service. You need to stay engaged and follow their sell signals, or you might miss the optimal exit points.
The $499 Question: Is It Worth the Cost?
Let’s do the math: At $499 per year (or $449 for new members, more on the discounts in the next section), you’re paying about $21 per stock recommendation.
To break even on the subscription cost alone, you’d need:
• At least $2,500 invested to make the fee worthwhile (assuming 20% outperformance)
• Preferably $5,000+ to see meaningful dollar returns
• The discipline to follow both buy AND sell signals
The real cost consideration: This isn’t just about the subscription fee. It’s about having enough capital to diversify across multiple picks and capture those few big winners that drive the outperformance.
Seeking Alpha & Alpha Picks Discounts and Deals
Don’t pay full price for Seeking Alpha or Alpha Picks. Savvy prospective subscribers can take advantage of limited-time offers, promo codes, and exclusive deals, with some promotions reducing the cost significantly. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, these discounts provide an affordable way to access in-depth analysis, quant ratings, and more.
To ensure you get the latest and best deal, check out our comprehensive guide on the Best Seeking Alpha Discount here.
What the 3-Year Track Record Actually Tells Us
Here’s the pattern I noticed when analyzing the year-by-year performance:
2022 picks: Solid outperformance as they matured
2023 picks: Strong results, especially the longer-held positions
2024 picks: Good early performance
2025 picks: Too early to judge, but following the pattern
The insight: The outperformance seems to increase over longer time periods, which aligns with momentum investing research. The stocks that maintain momentum tend to keep running.
But here’s the caveat: Three years isn’t long enough to test this strategy through different market cycles. We haven’t seen how it performs in a prolonged bear market or during sector rotations.
The Transparency Factor: What Sets Alpha Picks Apart
Most stock-picking services hide their methodology. Alpha Picks does the opposite:
• Complete transparency about their quantitative model
• Real-time performance tracking for every pick
• Clear buy and sell criteria
• Detailed explanations of their “quantamental” approach
The team behind it: Steven Cress (30+ years in quantitative strategies, former Morgan Stanley) and Joel Hancock (product experience at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, E*TRADE).
This isn’t a black box – you can understand exactly why they’re making each recommendation.
Trending Checking Account Deal:
The Momentum Investing Reality Check
Here’s what you need to understand about momentum strategies:
They’re designed to capture explosive moves in stocks that are already showing strength. This means:
• Higher volatility than buy-and-hold strategies
• More frequent trading and position management
• The need to act quickly on buy and sell signals
• Psychological comfort with having some losing positions
If you prefer steady, predictable returns, this isn’t for you. But if you can handle the volatility for the potential of significant outperformance, the track record is compelling.
The Bottom Line: What 3 Years of Data Really Shows
The good news: Alpha Picks has delivered exactly what it promised – significant market outperformance through a disciplined, quantitative approach.
The reality check: This is a momentum strategy that requires active management, sufficient capital, and comfort with volatility.
The unknown: How it will perform in different market conditions over longer time periods.
My take: If you have $5,000+ to invest, understand momentum investing, and can follow buy/sell signals consistently, the track record justifies serious consideration.
But if you’re looking for simple, set-it-and-forget-it investing, stick with index funds.
The real question isn’t whether Alpha Picks works – the data shows it does. The question is whether it works for your investing style and capital situation.
What’s your risk tolerance? Do you have enough capital to diversify across multiple momentum picks? Can you handle the psychological pressure of a strategy where 27% of positions lose money?
Answer those questions first, and the Alpha Picks decision becomes clear.
Looking for a comprehensive guide to everything Seeking Alpha? Be sure to check out The Complete Guide to Seeking Alpha, your go-to hub for all the articles, resources, and premium features to maximize your investment research.
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